MANvsEATRS

Just a couple of weeks ago, a story circulated that DARPA was funding a flesh eating robot.

http://www.scificool.com/darpa-funds-flesh-eating-eatr-robot/

I am actually very proud of Sci-Fi Cool for not deleting this quite embarrassing post. They simply made another post apologizing for this, the original. Other news sources like Fox simply updated their original story with the truth that the EATR robot feeds on vegetation not flesh, even animal flesh.

Fox is certainly not the only news source guilty of such cover-ups. Many do the exact same thing. Then there is Reuters which simply removes the original url and posts a revised story with a new url.

To me this kind of behavior is endemic of the social change which has transpired due to the internet. Fact checking is so easily done on the internet for many stories. It has pressured news sources to accept greater responsibility even as their funding declines. So they take advantage of the technology to remove the evidence of mismanaged articles thereby neutralizing the negative effects even as the urban myth type story continues to spread faster than it ever would have without the internet. Is there any doubt that there are still people who believe the EATR actually will eat corpses?

The fact that such a story was released at all clearly illustrates the hold that hollywood’s science fiction has over America. True any good literary sf afficiando can name killer robot novels, but there are just as many, and probably more, novels which portray highly ethical, less sensationalized robots and AIs. Asimov’s I, Robot is probably the most quoted example, and rightly so, of robots with ethics or rather ethical programming yet the movie is quite the contrary. Of course the film has its own merits, but it is dominated by a tyrranical AI.

Part of me wants to quote P. W. Singer in comparing Japan’s robot innovations which are peaceful against America’s robot innovations which are militaristic. However, I do not think Americans are afraid of robots. I think Americans have lived with computers long enough to realize that a user does not have to be smarter than the machine, the user must be as stupid as the programmer. However, consumers do not follow superior programming, or more of them would be Mac users. Of course, many will argue that Microsoft in fact does have the superior programmers, but it also has the less ethical businesspeople. My point is that the “EATR eats flesh” story is more about our fear of government than of robots. Americans use computers despite the hacker threat. We will welcome robots despite their threats, and in the end the truth will likely be far more mundane than anyone currently expects.

Science fiction

I love it when journalists say something to the extent of, “it may sound like science fiction, but….” Well, it may sound like science fiction but next year is 2010. 2001 was eight years ago. No one expects to see a giant foetus hovering above the Earth, but we can certainly expect times to change and technology in particular to advance. Technology may not be the primary driver of social change, but technological advances honestly deserve greater respect than an inane comment like, “it sounds like science fiction.”

Martin Cooper freely admits he was hugely influenced by Star Trek when he invented the world’s first cellular phone for Motorola. Does this still seem like science fiction? Of course not, so why can’t modern man, at least those of us living in the top ranked economies, begin to expect technological change? I believe this highlights the importance of respect to society’s creatives. Science fiction has long been seen as a genre based niche. Only sf authors who crossed the genre threshold were ever revered as literary. For a long time, Orwell, Huxley, and to some extent Verne and Wells were the only futuristic fiction authors revered for their literary ability.

As more science fiction authors have transmigrated to the great holodeck at the edge of the universe, more authors are being recognised not just for their influence on technology and society but also on the literary world. The Library of America’s editions for Philip K. Dick are a prime example. I still question whether Dick would be nearly as recognized by the literary world if not for the filmization of Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep and Hollywood’s later attempts to mine Dick’s work for filmable ideas. Science fiction achieved greater respect outside the US, particularly in France. However, the US still seems to view sf as something made for children and geeks.

Futures studies receives similar derision perhaps due in part to certain ideological similarities to sf. I must admit, its ideological similarities to sf are what attracted me to futures studies. As futures studies/ strategic foresight have gained greater respect in the business world, so has science fiction. There would be appear to me to be a relationship either between people’s acceptance of speculative fiction and their acceptance of practical applications or vice versa.

In the “I can’t believe its not science fiction” category, virtual reality devices can now simulate touch, sight, sound, smell, and taste. A couple of months ago, the University of Tsukuba in Japan developed a set of tiles which will allow VR junkies to have a range of mobility while remaining in the same area inside a room. Star Trek’s vision for a holodeck may not be far off. If so, what are the cultural implications? Will this technology eventually be commercialized with great financial support from the porn industry much like VHS and the internet? Or will other cultural developments converge to make VR more an educational technology as many wish the internet to become to a greater extent?

Okay, I rabbit trailed a little in this blog, worse than in previous entries, but aren’t you glad you stayed for the ride?

Future Savvy by Adam Gordon

When I first ran across the book information online, I did not recognize the author’s name. The book’s tag line, “Identifying trends to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change,” confused me. Does Gordon have a plural view of the future and therefore discuss multiple scenario forecasts, or was he referring primarily to baseline trend extrapolation so common with many business books? Either way, the book sounded interesting as it attempts to separate the wheat from the chaff to discern the usable aspects of the shock and awe implied by most forecasts.

On further research, I found out that Gordon worked with Coates & Jarrett, a preeminent US futurist consultancy.  He is also a graduate of the University of Houston Clear Lake MS program in Futures Studies.  Therefore, the book is from a scenario planning futurist perspective while remaining objective enough to criticize himself, his colleagues, and other forecasters.

He covers ways to recognize forecast intentions, the quality of the data on which forecasts are founded, the spin placed on forecasts interpretations, our own individual assumptions about the future, how consumers drive and block change, other drivers and blockers, the limits of quantitative forecasting, a systems perspective, alternative futures forecasts, applying forecast filters, and more than 40 questions to use in evaluating any forecast.

“The expectations and desires or fears that a forecast sets in motion influence the actual future that emerges.”

“A flexible and hedged view of the future that is ’somewhat correct’ is obviously more useful to people than a wrong prediction however singularly asserted.” So, “while we cannot completely rely on foresight studies,” or the advice of trained futurist professionals, “to ignore them is fatal.”

I would continue with the quotes, but I am afraid of quoting at least 50% of the book and violating the copyright. As a student of futures studies myself, I must confess that the book challenged my own assumptions of the future and of forecasts. The systems application to futures alone is worth the price of the book.

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Savvy-Identifying-Decisions-Uncertainty/dp/0814409121/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1237066974&sr=8-1

Under Construction

This blog was put up quite hastily, and I have been trying to edit the content of this blog. Additionally, I am working on a number of different posts which I am just not satisfied with. Perhaps I am too much of a nitpicker to be a blogger. If it isn’t maintaining the relevance of the posts, it is the correctness of the grammar.

I still need to post some ideas on immigration and hydrogen. Likewise I have another post on robots and automation as well as organization development.

Too many dreams, too little time

It’s been a very hectic semester. I only took to courses this time, but they both required more research than any of my other courses. Hurricane Ike did a number on our study schedule which is an added headache. I have a couple of reports that I would like to post, but they are not in proper condition right now. It is one thing to write a report for a grade and something completely different to write something for overall quality. While the reports may fit the needs of the class, they do not fit the needs of a general public. So, I will work on them, but I am also going to be away from my computer for a little while.

Plus I’ve been working longer hours than usual while trying to start a recording company. Accompanying that is the mixing and recording of a number of songs. They are all very close. I seriously felt, we could finish three songs per band by December for a new year’s release. However, we are not going to finish all the song until New Year’s. Unfortunately, that means that live shows will be a bigger struggle than expected too due to conflicting schedules.

After Christmas, I intensify the job search. I’ve already started it, but the search has been focused on a couple of key companies. A company called Shaping Tomorrow looks primed to let me do some pro bono work which will hopefully lead to some paid work. I am really looking forward to working with them, but there are still a couple of companies on my dream list which I need to contact. Also, I am still working on my article for inclusion in Dr. Nick Marsh’s book. It had to be put on hold during this busy semester, but we still have a long way to go before any submissions will be accepted for the book.

I am currently reading Future Savvy by Adam Gordon. So far, I have nothing to criticize. In fact, the book is quite interesting. After taking six months to read Ender’s game for recreation as well as reading about immigration and hydrogen for my classes, I am really enjoying readin about my chosen profession again. Too many dreams, too little time.